1 College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Cash is Can Be Found In On Texas'

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The college football world was wishing for a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matchups underwhelmed, providing a lot of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went a best 4-0 against the spread, consisting of 3 fairly non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public don't appear to believe so. A minimum of in 2 cases.
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Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been a particularly popular choice with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of overall dollars since Monday afternoon.

"All the cash is coming in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, composed in a text message to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."

The enthusiasm for the Longhorns encompasses the futures market as well. Keep in mind that massive $1.5 million wager on Texas to win it all at +390 chances? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.

Interestingly, the Longhorns' challenger, Arizona State - the biggest underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most like from sharp wagerers. The Athletic talked with numerous bookmakers who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas - to press the line to -12.5 or -12.

John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "extremely reputable gamer."

Although reputable money has can be found in on State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public wagerers are overdoing Texas.

"We would love to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.

While the Texas game will be huge for the books, it isn't the only game in town. We chatted with multiple bookies to break down where the wagering action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matchups. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State

This game opened Penn State -10.5 at most sportsbooks and has approached slightly to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly split at a lot of sportsbooks. The total dollars wagered varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the second most popular CFP wager in terms of total tickets at BetMGM books.

"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The Athletic. "I would not be shocked if this line approaches a bit more before kickoff, however I presently invite any Boise State money."

Ohio State got the Oregon 2nd opportunity it desired. Are the Buckeyes all set for vengeance?

No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon

Perhaps most unexpected to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These groups met back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home dog.

So why is OSU preferred?

Several oddsmakers The Athletic spoke to before the CFP very first round had Ohio State atop their power scores, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker pointed out that Ohio State playing up to its power score in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also shaped his opening line.
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Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite (depending upon the sportsbook) in this video game before respected cash pushed it to the current line of -2.5. A slightly greater bulk of wagers at several sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near 60% of the money has actually been available in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the 4 come kickoff.

"We did take some highly regarded cash at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it's remained," Gable said. "It's decent two-way action at that number right now. The overall has gone up 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the most significant relocation of any of the overalls. Money has all been on the over up until now.

Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that accommodates sharp wagerers, told The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and right away our Ohio bettors thought we were too low. Our opening price of Ohio State -1 has actually been increased to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."

He did note, however, that the book had seen significant buyback at the current line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the total dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.

GO DEEPER

The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's second round

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)

The favorite flipped in this video game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.

What triggered the line turn? Basically, the wagering action.

Despite the fact that Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been changed by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, gamblers are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.

Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars bet), and it has actually been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at several sportsbooks.